On Sunday, 12 October 2025, Malagasy president Andry Rajoelina was exfiltrated by a French military aircraft. Not a footnote, but the culmination of a coercive pillar that stopped acting as one.
On Saturday, 11 October 2025, the Corps d’Administration des Personnels et Services de l’Armée de Terre (CAPSAT) refused orders and escorted demonstrators to place du 13-Mai, turning a square of democratic memory into the day’s command post.
Parts of the army and the gendarmerie stepped back; loyalties blurred between Soanierana barracks and the square; the presidency lost control of the street and slices of the ranks.
Security forces are hinge actors: they can turn protest into transition, or into a vacuum for predators. The choice for officers is not “politics or neutrality” but which public they will secure: a besieged presidency, or citizens demanding water, electricity, dignity.
The rupture created breathing space without a junta script; it must not be traded to old networks seeking a soft landing.
Priorities: civilian oversight and discipline, protect movement autonomy, lock in non-negotiables (truth, independent policing, credible elections) before any handshake.
To make refusals to shoot routine, it’s fundamental to invest in officer education that centres republican ethics and the duty to disobey illegal orders, echoing Senegal’s Saint-Louis tradition, where cadets learn allegiance to institutions and law as much as the art of war.
When the forces meant to compel refuse to comply, windows open; whether they lead to a democratic transition depends on who secures them, and for whom.
