CAMEROON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: A FOREGONE CONCLUSION
October 2025
Editos/Fondemos’ view
FONDEMOS’ VIEW
The result of the presidential election in Cameroon surprised no one. After two tense weeks marked by the demands of Issa Tchiroma Bakary, the Constitutional Council declared the “victory” of Paul Biya, who has been in power uninterrupted since 1982.
It was written long before ballots were cast, as so many before it. When the ballot box brings no suspense, the real task is to see beyond it.
What matters is no longer who claims victory, but when Paul Biya’s decades-long reign will end, and what will follow. His rule cannot last forever: the real uncertainty is how it ends, and what comes next.
Several scenarios are already visible.
The first is the appointment of a dauphin, chosen to preserve the status quo. The second is the army, stepping in under the deceptive pretext of guaranteeing stability and national security. The third is the most perilous: chaos, as frustration boils over, protests turn violent, and institutions crack under the weight of their own delegitimization. None of these outcomes is enviable. Only one offers hope: a transition that is deliberate, inclusive, and credible.
The obstacles are intimidating: the Anglophone conflict continues to corrode national unity. Poverty and unemployment deepen despair. An elite cut off from popular realities shows little willingness to engage in reform. On top of all that, 70% of Cameroonians are under 30, and they have never known another leader.
This demographic reality mirrors Africa as a whole: a young, impatient continent that refuses to wait forever.
What matters is no longer who claims victory, but when Paul Biya’s decades long reign will end, and what will follow.
Youth is no longer a passive spectator. It mobilized around the vote, took part in election monitoring, and wants to be heard. Just hours before the announcement of the results, unprecedented mobilizations shook the country, which is not accustomed to mass protests.
In Douala, Yaoundé, Garoua, and Maroua, roads were barricaded, and clashes left at least 4 people dead and more than 100 arrested.
This engagement represents the best chance for renewal, the only safeguard against an authoritarian succession and a violent rupture.
Cameroon’s election may have been predictable, but its aftermath is not.
To see beyond the ballot box is to recognize that Biya’s reign will end, and that only one outcome is worth striving for: a genuine democratic transition, prepared before time runs out.
